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Red210
540677.8
748048.4
220079.9
Blue214
316153.0
18859.8
491767.4
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions217175100150200250300210214

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+4Teleop
Endgame+2
Fouls+4
AutonomousRed +14
0Leave0
10Coral scored#7
51Coral points37
51Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +10
20Coral scored#30
73Coral points109
6Processor algae#3
6Net algae#4
36Processor points18
24Net points16
60Algae points34
133Total teleop143
Reef
13L4#10
8L3#14
4L2#7
5L1 · trough#6
42Game pieces#44
BargeBlue +6
20Cage & park26
20Total endgame26
Penalties & totalBlue +4
6Foul points8
210Total score214

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
79.90.1
80.480.3
Auto23.8
Teleop54.6
End1.6
red by 12.5
4917
#10
67.40.7
65.466.1
Auto19.0
Teleop37.7
End10.7
Second
77.80.1
78.378.2
Auto18.0
Teleop48.3
End11.5
red by 18.1
188
#21
59.80.7
57.858.5
Auto18.2
Teleop36.0
End5.5
Third
7480
#16
48.40.1
48.948.8
Auto10.7
Teleop33.0
End4.7
blue by 4.6
3161
#23
53.00.7
51.051.7
Auto12.6
Teleop33.3
End7.1