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Red223
494686.9
540989.3
747644.2
Blue208
316153.0
18859.8
491767.4
96%Model gave it4%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions238173100150200250300223208

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+35Teleop
+33Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave9
12Coral scored#11
58Coral points56
58Total auto65
TeleoperatedRed +42
31Coral scored#19
111Coral points69
3Processor algae#3
5Net algae#5
18Processor points18
20Net points20
38Algae points38
149Total teleop107
Reef
18L4#11
12L3#6
8L2#9
5L1 · trough#4
51Game pieces#38
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +15
2Foul points20
223Total score208

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
89.30.0
89.389.3
Auto25.2
Teleop61.1
End3.0
red by 22.0
4917
#10
67.40.3
66.166.4
Auto19.0
Teleop37.7
End10.7
Second
86.90.0
87.087.0
Auto20.8
Teleop55.4
End10.7
red by 27.2
188
#21
59.80.3
58.558.8
Auto18.2
Teleop36.0
End5.5
Third
7476
#19
44.20.0
44.244.2
Auto6.6
Teleop34.7
End3.0
blue by 8.8
3161
#23
53.00.3
51.752.0
Auto12.6
Teleop33.3
End7.1