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Red136
591236.1
260932.6
447650.2
Blue29
316134.8
353830.0
686521.5
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12813205010015020025013629

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+97Teleop
+107Endgame
+107Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
3Leave6
4Coral scored#0
20Coral points0
23Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +80
19Coral scored#4
69Coral points15
3Processor algae#0
3Net algae#1
18Processor points0
12Net points4
30Algae points4
99Total teleop19
Reef
6L4#1
7L3#1
6L2#1
4L1 · trough#1
29Game pieces#5
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +107
0Foul points0
136Total score29

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4476
#14
50.21.2
45.646.8
Auto11.2
Teleop38.3
End0.9
red by 15.5
3161
#21
34.86.4
44.538.1
Auto9.7
Teleop19.1
End5.9
Second
5912
#27
36.11.2
38.039.2
Auto9.4
Teleop26.0
End0.6
red by 6.1
3538
#26
30.06.4
46.640.2
Auto8.2
Teleop22.4
End-0.6
Third
2609
#17
32.61.2
31.532.7
Auto5.5
Teleop19.5
End7.6
red by 11.1
6865
#18
21.56.4
30.824.4
Auto4.3
Teleop15.9
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned86%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
21%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
47%Barge oddsMissed15%Barge oddsMissed