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Red154
765926.5
790231.7
540976.0
Blue126
878913.8
906217.4
888465.0
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions166109050150200250154126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+42Teleop
+32Endgame
+28Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
3Leave6
7Coral scored#2
34Coral points10
37Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +21
20Coral scored#13
73Coral points48
3Processor algae#3
5Net algae#6
18Processor points18
20Net points24
38Algae points42
111Total teleop90
Reef
9L4#6
6L3#5
7L2#2
5L1 · trough#2
35Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +28
0Foul points4
154Total score126

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
76.00.8
81.982.7
Auto22.0
Teleop51.1
End2.9
red by 11.1
8884
#16
65.01.6
67.368.9
Auto17.5
Teleop42.6
End4.8
Second
7902
#10
31.70.8
31.732.5
Auto3.2
Teleop25.1
End3.5
red by 14.3
9062
#23
17.41.6
13.915.4
Auto1.1
Teleop15.0
End1.3
Third
7659
#22
26.50.8
28.629.4
Auto3.3
Teleop16.7
End6.5
red by 12.7
8789
#25
13.81.6
17.519.1
Auto1.3
Teleop11.2
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
48%Auto oddsEarned75%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
23%Coral oddsMissed22%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
81%Barge oddsMissed14%Barge oddsEarned