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Red139
205699.4
490768.6
906217.4
Blue75
765926.5
591236.1
316134.8
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2581315010015020030035013975

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+64Teleop
+64Endgame
+64Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
0Leave3
6Coral scored#2
30Coral points10
30Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +47
19Coral scored#12
67Coral points42
2Processor algae#1
6Net algae#2
12Processor points6
24Net points8
36Algae points14
103Total teleop56
Reef
10L4#6
6L3#2
4L2#4
5L1 · trough#2
33Game pieces#17
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +64
0Foul points0
139Total score75

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2056
#11
99.46.0
108.3102.3
Auto28.5
Teleop60.8
End10.0
red by 63.3
5912
#27
36.14.2
42.538.3
Auto9.4
Teleop26.0
End0.6
Second
68.66.0
86.080.0
Auto17.2
Teleop41.9
End9.4
red by 33.8
3161
#21
34.84.2
53.048.8
Auto9.7
Teleop19.1
End5.9
Third
9062
#23
17.46.0
25.619.7
Auto1.1
Teleop15.0
End1.3
blue by 9.1
7659
#22
26.54.2
36.332.1
Auto3.3
Teleop16.7
End6.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned90%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
88%Coral oddsMissed18%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
95%Barge oddsMissed82%Barge oddsMissed