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Red173
467881.2
368375.5
686521.5
Blue102
747533.0
131048.8
878913.8
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions22691050150200250300350173102

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+52Auto
+61Teleop
+71Endgame
+71Fouls
AutonomousRed +52
3Leave0
13Coral scored#3
65Coral points16
68Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +9
19Coral scored#16
69Coral points58
1Processor algae#2
4Net algae#3
6Processor points12
16Net points12
22Algae points24
91Total teleop82
Reef
9L4#7
7L3#7
11L2#2
5L1 · trough#3
37Game pieces#24
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +71
0Foul points0
173Total score102

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
81.22.0
82.680.6
Auto25.0
Teleop47.1
End9.1
red by 32.4
1310
#12
48.80.2
46.646.8
Auto11.9
Teleop29.5
End7.3
Second
75.52.0
77.875.8
Auto24.4
Teleop48.7
End2.5
red by 42.5
33.00.2
30.831.0
Auto4.8
Teleop27.1
End1.0
Third
6865
#18
21.52.0
33.931.9
Auto4.3
Teleop15.9
End1.3
red by 7.7
8789
#25
13.80.2
18.919.1
Auto1.3
Teleop11.2
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned59%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
95%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
69%Barge oddsMissed39%Barge oddsMissed