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Red186
111476.4
316134.8
790231.7
Blue199
747533.0
752041.0
447650.2
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions165131050100150200250300186199

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+25
Endgame+15
Fouls+13
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave0
7Coral scored#6
33Coral points30
33Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +28
20Coral scored#33
71Coral points117
5Processor algae#2
6Net algae#6
30Processor points12
24Net points24
54Algae points36
125Total teleop153
Reef
14L4#13
6L3#13
4L2#6
3L1 · trough#7
38Game pieces#47
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Penalties & totalBlue +13
2Foul points0
186Total score199

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1114
#13
76.40.4
76.076.4
Auto18.8
Teleop52.1
End5.6
red by 26.2
4476
#14
50.21.2
48.649.8
Auto11.2
Teleop38.3
End0.9
Second
3161
#21
34.80.4
34.434.8
Auto9.7
Teleop19.1
End5.9
blue by 6.2
7520
#20
41.01.2
39.440.6
Auto15.4
Teleop23.7
End2.1
Third
7902
#10
31.70.4
31.331.7
Auto3.2
Teleop25.1
End3.5
blue by 1.3
33.01.2
31.332.5
Auto4.8
Teleop27.1
End1.0