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Red206
368375.5
467881.2
591236.1
Blue170
490768.6
878913.8
888465.0
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions21416450100150200250300206170

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+10Teleop
+24Endgame
+36Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
0Leave0
13Coral scored#10
65Coral points51
65Total auto51
TeleoperatedBlue +4
24Coral scored#19
87Coral points69
1Processor algae#2
5Net algae#9
6Processor points12
20Net points36
26Algae points48
113Total teleop117
Reef
15L4#11
8L3#6
10L2#6
4L1 · trough#6
43Game pieces#40
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Penalties & totalRed +36
12Foul points0
206Total score170

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
81.20.2
79.279.4
Auto25.0
Teleop47.1
End9.1
red by 12.6
68.60.5
68.769.2
Auto17.2
Teleop41.9
End9.4
Second
75.50.2
73.573.7
Auto24.4
Teleop48.7
End2.5
red by 10.6
8884
#16
65.00.5
65.165.6
Auto17.5
Teleop42.6
End4.8
Third
5912
#27
36.10.2
34.134.3
Auto9.4
Teleop26.0
End0.6
red by 22.3
8789
#25
13.80.5
13.213.8
Auto1.3
Teleop11.2
End1.3