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Red186
132577.0
502434.5
128545.1
Blue161
270251.4
136044.9
1001521.5
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions168108050150200250300186161

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+29Auto
+17Teleop
+19Endgame
+25Fouls
AutonomousRed +29
6Leave3
10Coral scored#5
52Coral points26
58Total auto29
TeleoperatedBlue +12
18Coral scored#18
64Coral points66
2Processor algae#3
5Net algae#6
12Processor points18
20Net points24
32Algae points42
96Total teleop108
Reef
10L4#8
9L3#6
6L2#5
3L1 · trough#4
35Game pieces#32
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +25
16Foul points10
186Total score161

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
77.00.5
74.775.1
Auto24.8
Teleop48.5
End3.7
red by 25.6
2702
#13
51.40.9
48.349.3
Auto6.8
Teleop39.4
End5.1
Second
45.10.5
42.843.2
Auto12.0
Teleop31.6
End1.5
red by 0.2
44.90.9
41.842.8
Auto9.1
Teleop31.6
End4.1
Third
5024
#24
34.50.5
32.232.6
Auto12.1
Teleop20.1
End2.4
red by 13.0
21.50.9
18.419.4
Auto4.6
Teleop16.6
End0.4