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Red174
494679.3
415268.0
270820.8
Blue182
132577.0
502434.5
128545.1
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions192155050100250300350400174182

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+8
Teleop+26
Endgame+16
Fouls+8
AutonomousBlue +8
3Leave3
9Coral scored#10
44Coral points52
47Total auto55
TeleoperatedBlue +18
20Coral scored#26
73Coral points93
1Processor algae#2
6Net algae#4
6Processor points12
24Net points16
30Algae points28
103Total teleop121
Reef
10L4#16
7L3#9
8L2#6
4L1 · trough#5
36Game pieces#42
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Penalties & totalBlue +8
8Foul points0
174Total score182

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
79.30.1
80.180.0
Auto19.3
Teleop49.7
End10.3
red by 2.3
77.00.7
75.175.8
Auto24.8
Teleop48.5
End3.7
Second
68.00.1
68.868.7
Auto21.1
Teleop39.4
End7.4
red by 22.9
45.10.7
43.243.9
Auto12.0
Teleop31.6
End1.5
Third
2708
#18
20.80.1
20.920.8
Auto6.1
Teleop13.0
End1.7
blue by 13.7
5024
#24
34.50.7
32.633.3
Auto12.1
Teleop20.1
End2.4