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Red70
697517.0
1053523.4
765930.9
Blue60
316149.4
567221.4
956218.3
29%Model gave it71%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions67930501502007060

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+10
0Teleop0
0Endgame0
+10Fouls
AutonomousBlue +10
3Leave9
1Coral scored#2
6Coral points10
9Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +10
8Coral scored#4
29Coral points13
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
0Processor points6
4Net points4
4Algae points10
33Total teleop23
Reef
3L4#2
3L3#2
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
10Game pieces#8
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +10
12Foul points2
70Total score60

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7659
#10
30.90.5
24.123.6
Auto4.2
Teleop19.0
End7.7
blue by 18.5
49.41.7
46.945.2
Auto12.2
Teleop30.8
End6.4
Second
23.40.5
24.023.5
Auto5.5
Teleop15.7
End2.1
red by 2.0
5672
#15
21.41.7
18.717.0
Auto4.0
Teleop12.5
End4.9
Third
6975
#29
17.00.5
17.316.8
Auto3.8
Teleop11.4
End1.7
blue by 1.4
9562
#26
18.31.7
17.816.1
Auto5.7
Teleop10.4
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
27%Auto oddsMissed75%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
44%Barge oddsEarned36%Barge oddsEarned