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Red189
111475.2
956218.3
220080.7
Blue219
540663.9
132547.7
2056112.3
4%Model gave it96%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions165235100150200250300350189219

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+14
Endgame+24
Fouls+30
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave9
8Coral scored#6
38Coral points32
44Total auto41
TeleoperatedBlue +17
22Coral scored#29
79Coral points104
3Processor algae#3
10Net algae#8
18Processor points18
40Net points32
58Algae points50
137Total teleop154
Reef
9L4#14
8L3#8
7L2#9
6L1 · trough#4
43Game pieces#46
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +30
2Foul points8
189Total score219

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
80.71.2
77.478.6
Auto21.5
Teleop56.3
End2.9
blue by 31.6
112.30.6
110.8110.2
Auto26.8
Teleop78.6
End6.8
Second
75.21.2
73.074.2
Auto21.3
Teleop50.2
End3.7
red by 11.3
63.90.6
61.761.0
Auto13.1
Teleop41.1
End9.7
Third
9562
#26
18.31.2
15.116.3
Auto5.7
Teleop10.4
End2.3
blue by 29.3
47.70.6
45.544.8
Auto12.6
Teleop32.0
End3.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned94%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
92%Coral oddsMissed96%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
19%Barge oddsMissed95%Barge oddsEarned