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Red53
1001515.6
748030.4
132518.8
Blue48
238619.2
956919.9
909837.8
26%Model gave it74%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6584020401001201405348

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+3Teleop
+5Endgame
+5Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
0Leave6
3Coral scored#0
16Coral points0
16Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +7
4Coral scored#6
13Coral points22
0Processor algae#1
3Net algae#1
0Processor points6
12Net points4
12Algae points10
25Total teleop32
Reef
3L4#2
2L3#2
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
10Game pieces#8
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +5
6Foul points6
53Total score48

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.41.5
23.221.7
Auto4.9
Teleop24.2
End1.3
blue by 7.4
37.83.6
34.931.4
Auto7.5
Teleop21.7
End8.6
Second
1325
#27
18.81.5
24.623.0
Auto3.4
Teleop13.3
End2.1
blue by 1.1
9569
#19
19.93.6
17.814.2
Auto1.5
Teleop15.9
End2.5
Third
15.61.5
13.111.6
Auto7.0
Teleop6.3
End2.3
blue by 3.5
2386
#21
19.23.6
21.317.8
Auto3.0
Teleop14.0
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
62%Auto oddsEarned75%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
25%Barge oddsMissed30%Barge oddsMissed