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Red58
238619.2
130517.5
790222.2
Blue74
834916.1
611021.9
122922.5
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6668505560707580855874

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+10
Teleop+28
Endgame+22
Fouls+16
AutonomousBlue +10
0Leave6
1Coral scored#2
6Coral points10
6Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +18
6Coral scored#9
20Coral points34
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#3
6Processor points6
8Net points12
14Algae points18
34Total teleop52
Reef
2L4#5
1L3#2
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
10Game pieces#15
BargeRed +6
12Cage & park6
12Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +16
6Foul points0
58Total score74

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7902
#20
22.21.1
20.219.1
Auto2.7
Teleop14.8
End4.8
blue by 0.3
22.51.6
21.523.1
Auto4.4
Teleop16.3
End1.9
Second
2386
#21
19.21.1
19.418.3
Auto3.0
Teleop14.0
End2.2
blue by 2.8
6110
#15
21.91.6
21.222.8
Auto5.5
Teleop15.6
End0.8
Third
1305
#22
17.51.1
19.518.4
Auto2.5
Teleop13.5
End1.5
red by 1.4
8349
#10
16.11.6
17.318.8
Auto3.3
Teleop10.1
End2.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
40%Auto oddsMissed43%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
14%Barge oddsMissed27%Barge oddsMissed