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Red162
494667.2
415247.3
957516.7
Blue117
124143.1
373925.1
447653.6
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions127125050100150200250162117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+23Teleop
+33Endgame
+45Fouls
Autonomouslevel
9Leave0
6Coral scored#7
28Coral points37
37Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +23
15Coral scored#15
55Coral points54
4Processor algae#1
5Net algae#4
24Processor points6
20Net points16
44Algae points22
99Total teleop76
Reef
7L4#7
6L3#6
5L2#5
3L1 · trough#4
30Game pieces#27
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +45
12Foul points0
162Total score117

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
67.22.4
60.863.2
Auto16.1
Teleop43.1
End8.0
red by 13.6
53.60.3
52.752.4
Auto18.7
Teleop33.2
End1.7
Second
47.32.4
46.048.4
Auto11.1
Teleop30.4
End5.8
red by 4.2
43.10.3
43.343.0
Auto9.5
Teleop30.6
End3.0
Third
9575
#12
16.72.4
14.016.4
Auto4.6
Teleop11.5
End0.6
blue by 8.4
3739
#17
25.10.3
24.324.1
Auto3.9
Teleop21.3
End-0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
80%Auto oddsEarned85%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
30%Coral oddsEarned9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
88%Barge oddsEarned34%Barge oddsMissed