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Red187
494676.5
61059.0
698719.2
Blue194
540982.6
415261.8
375622.6
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions161177120140200220240187194

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+21
Teleop+33
Endgame+25
Fouls+7
AutonomousBlue +21
0Leave6
7Coral scored#10
37Coral points52
37Total auto58
TeleoperatedBlue +12
17Coral scored#23
62Coral points82
3Processor algae#3
7Net algae#5
18Processor points18
28Net points20
46Algae points38
108Total teleop120
Reef
8L4#14
7L3#11
6L2#5
3L1 · trough#3
34Game pieces#41
BargeRed +8
24Cage & park16
24Total endgame16
Penalties & totalBlue +7
18Foul points0
187Total score194

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
76.50.4
74.675.1
Auto20.7
Teleop47.2
End8.6
blue by 6.1
82.60.7
80.681.4
Auto22.6
Teleop55.7
End4.4
Second
610
#1
59.00.4
57.157.5
Auto13.6
Teleop39.7
End5.7
blue by 2.9
61.80.7
59.860.5
Auto16.2
Teleop38.6
End7.1
Third
6987
#19
19.20.4
17.317.8
Auto5.6
Teleop11.5
End2.1
blue by 3.4
3756
#26
22.60.7
20.621.3
Auto2.1
Teleop17.5
End3.0