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Red191
888460.9
873116.7
447670.3
Blue153
490753.0
285223.3
540645.2
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions156117100200191153

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+58Teleop
+38Endgame
+38Fouls
Autonomouslevel
3Leave3
8Coral scored#8
41Coral points41
44Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +58
26Coral scored#15
95Coral points55
3Processor algae#2
7Net algae#4
18Processor points12
28Net points16
46Algae points28
141Total teleop83
Reef
12L4#10
9L3#4
7L2#5
6L1 · trough#4
44Game pieces#29
BargeBlue +20
6Cage & park26
6Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +38
0Foul points0
191Total score153

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70.31.0
69.370.2
Auto21.7
Teleop45.2
End3.4
red by 17.3
53.00.7
52.453.1
Auto13.7
Teleop31.0
End8.4
Second
60.91.0
59.960.9
Auto12.9
Teleop41.8
End6.1
red by 15.7
45.20.7
44.645.2
Auto10.1
Teleop26.5
End8.5
Third
8731
#26
16.71.0
15.716.6
Auto3.0
Teleop12.4
End1.3
blue by 6.6
2852
#31
23.30.7
22.723.3
Auto5.4
Teleop17.5
End0.3