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Red79
490753.0
686418.2
491744.4
Blue120
959215.1
872926.9
447670.3
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions132955015020079120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+53
Endgame+43
Fouls+41
Autonomouslevel
3Leave6
5Coral scored#5
27Coral points24
30Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +53
6Coral scored#16
23Coral points58
1Processor algae#2
1Net algae#4
6Processor points12
4Net points16
10Algae points28
33Total teleop86
Reef
3L4#5
3L3#10
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
13Game pieces#27
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +41
2Foul points0
79Total score120

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.04.5
56.752.2
Auto13.7
Teleop31.0
End8.4
blue by 17.3
70.31.8
58.960.7
Auto21.7
Teleop45.2
End3.4
Second
44.44.5
37.432.9
Auto9.8
Teleop28.0
End6.6
red by 17.5
8729
#11
26.93.0
25.128.1
Auto5.8
Teleop18.4
End2.7
Third
6864
#24
18.24.5
23.519.0
Auto4.7
Teleop10.3
End3.2
red by 3.1
9592
#18
15.13.0
9.112.1
Auto3.1
Teleop9.8
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
83%Auto oddsEarned63%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
13%Coral oddsMissed10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
93%Barge oddsEarned47%Barge oddsMissed