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Red103
354315.9
888460.9
559611.4
Blue125
1027912.0
503129.4
748045.9
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8677050100150103125

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+34
Endgame+22
Fouls+22
AutonomousBlue +14
9Leave3
1Coral scored#5
4Coral points24
13Total auto27
TeleoperatedBlue +20
11Coral scored#17
40Coral points60
2Processor algae#2
6Net algae#6
12Processor points12
24Net points24
36Algae points36
76Total teleop96
Reef
5L4#8
4L3#6
2L2#4
1L1 · trough#4
20Game pieces#30
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +22
0Foul points0
103Total score125

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.91.2
53.254.5
Auto12.9
Teleop41.8
End6.1
red by 15.0
45.92.9
37.540.4
Auto9.5
Teleop34.9
End1.6
Second
3543
#30
15.92.0
13.915.9
Auto2.6
Teleop10.5
End2.8
blue by 13.4
5031
#14
29.42.9
26.128.9
Auto4.3
Teleop23.4
End1.7
Third
5596
#29
11.42.0
11.613.6
Auto1.3
Teleop8.7
End1.3
blue by 0.6
12.04.8
9.514.3
Auto3.8
Teleop4.8
End3.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
29%Auto oddsEarned42%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
12%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
23%Barge oddsEarned21%Barge oddsMissed