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Red117
1001514.5
748045.9
490753.0
Blue111
685917.3
888460.9
503624.6
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9391607080100110120130117111

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+31Auto
+6Teleop
Endgame+4
+6Fouls
AutonomousRed +31
3Leave6
7Coral scored#0
34Coral points0
37Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +25
11Coral scored#14
38Coral points49
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#4
6Processor points12
8Net points16
14Algae points28
52Total teleop77
Reef
4L4#5
5L3#3
5L2#4
4L1 · trough#2
21Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +6
12Foul points2
117Total score111

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.02.6
35.438.1
Auto13.7
Teleop31.0
End8.4
blue by 7.9
60.91.8
39.441.2
Auto12.9
Teleop41.8
End6.1
Second
45.91.6
30.432.0
Auto9.5
Teleop34.9
End1.6
red by 21.3
5036
#17
24.61.8
24.025.7
Auto4.3
Teleop12.9
End7.5
Third
14.51.6
15.617.2
Auto6.5
Teleop5.0
End3.0
blue by 2.9
6859
#27
17.32.9
19.322.2
Auto2.3
Teleop13.4
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
55%Auto oddsEarned51%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
34%Barge oddsEarned69%Barge oddsEarned