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Red98
720028.9
503624.6
872926.9
Blue93
587025.6
354315.9
834922.4
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8459020401001201401609893

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
Teleop+11
Endgame+1
+5Fouls
AutonomousBlue +1
0Leave6
3Coral scored#2
15Coral points10
15Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +10
13Coral scored#14
47Coral points51
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#2
6Processor points12
8Net points8
14Algae points20
61Total teleop71
Reef
6L4#5
4L3#5
3L2#4
3L1 · trough#2
19Game pieces#20
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +5
6Foul points0
98Total score93

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7200
#15
28.90.5
28.629.1
Auto3.3
Teleop21.7
End3.9
red by 3.3
5870
#12
25.61.8
24.826.6
Auto3.1
Teleop21.0
End1.5
Second
8729
#11
26.90.7
21.922.5
Auto5.8
Teleop18.4
End2.7
red by 4.5
8349
#16
22.41.8
17.819.6
Auto5.3
Teleop13.7
End3.3
Third
5036
#17
24.60.5
23.323.7
Auto4.3
Teleop12.9
End7.5
red by 8.7
3543
#30
15.92.3
12.314.7
Auto2.6
Teleop10.5
End2.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
28%Auto oddsEarned28%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
73%Barge oddsEarned21%Barge oddsMissed