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Red45
85419.0
965916.8
263429.5
Blue42
1027921.2
713617.8
316141.6
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions507401001502004542

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+13
Endgame+3
+3Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave9
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +10
4Coral scored#6
13Coral points21
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#0
0Processor points6
4Net points0
4Algae points6
17Total teleop27
Reef
1L4#2
1L3#2
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
5Game pieces#7
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +3
6Foul points0
45Total score42

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2634
#18
29.50.6
24.423.7
Auto2.7
Teleop23.8
End3.1
blue by 12.1
3161
#15
41.62.3
33.130.7
Auto10.0
Teleop29.3
End2.2
Second
854
#6
19.00.4
13.813.4
Auto3.9
Teleop10.4
End4.7
blue by 2.2
21.21.4
13.512.1
Auto6.5
Teleop12.9
End1.9
Third
9659
#16
16.80.4
6.66.2
Auto4.5
Teleop11.0
End1.3
blue by 1.0
7136
#26
17.82.3
16.514.1
Auto3.6
Teleop13.0
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
10%Auto oddsMissed56%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
20%Barge oddsEarned33%Barge oddsMissed