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Red152
263429.5
755860.9
926218.5
Blue52
492031.5
957519.9
713617.8
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1066905015015252

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+42Teleop
+52Endgame
+100Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
3Leave3
3Coral scored#1
17Coral points6
20Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +31
12Coral scored#5
42Coral points19
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#0
6Processor points6
8Net points0
14Algae points6
56Total teleop25
Reef
3L4#1
6L3#2
3L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
18Game pieces#7
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +100
60Foul points12
152Total score52

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.90.0
51.651.6
Auto14.8
Teleop35.3
End10.8
red by 29.4
4920
#11
31.53.0
28.525.5
Auto7.6
Teleop20.8
End3.2
Second
2634
#18
29.50.1
27.027.0
Auto2.7
Teleop23.8
End3.1
red by 9.6
9575
#24
19.91.8
16.714.9
Auto4.3
Teleop14.1
End1.5
Third
9262
#10
18.50.0
14.014.0
Auto6.8
Teleop9.4
End2.4
red by 0.7
7136
#26
17.83.0
22.219.2
Auto3.6
Teleop13.0
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
66%Auto oddsMissed34%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
72%Barge oddsEarned33%Barge oddsMissed