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Red117
1063415.4
571923.2
978537.5
Blue90
978215.9
293544.5
956215.8
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions79775060709010011012011790

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+19Teleop
+23Endgame
+27Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
9Leave6
3Coral scored#1
17Coral points3
26Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +2
16Coral scored#14
57Coral points51
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#5
6Processor points6
16Net points20
22Algae points26
79Total teleop77
Reef
7L4#5
6L3#5
3L2#2
3L1 · trough#3
24Game pieces#21
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +27
6Foul points2
117Total score90

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
37.52.1
29.031.1
Auto8.0
Teleop27.6
End1.9
blue by 7.0
44.50.1
41.041.2
Auto9.8
Teleop32.8
End2.0
Second
5719
#20
23.22.1
23.025.1
Auto5.2
Teleop15.6
End2.4
red by 7.3
9782
#12
15.90.1
12.913.0
Auto3.7
Teleop11.4
End0.8
Third
15.42.1
12.614.7
Auto5.6
Teleop9.8
End0.1
blue by 0.3
9562
#21
15.80.2
15.215.4
Auto3.4
Teleop11.3
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
47%Auto oddsEarned73%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
8%Barge oddsMissed12%Barge oddsMissed