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Red88
672528.8
430827.0
639717.3
Blue101
401515.1
926218.5
752052.8
23%Model gave it77%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions639005010015088101

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+20
Teleop+11
Endgame+13
Fouls+13
AutonomousBlue +20
3Leave6
3Coral scored#6
14Coral points31
17Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +9
12Coral scored#12
43Coral points44
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
12Processor points6
12Net points8
24Algae points14
67Total teleop58
Reef
4L4#6
5L3#6
4L2#4
2L1 · trough#2
20Game pieces#21
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +13
0Foul points0
88Total score101

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
28.82.9
23.226.0
Auto6.9
Teleop20.4
End1.5
blue by 24.1
52.81.4
50.151.5
Auto15.9
Teleop35.0
End1.9
Second
4308
#19
27.02.7
19.722.3
Auto7.0
Teleop18.8
End1.2
red by 8.5
9262
#10
18.51.4
14.716.1
Auto6.8
Teleop9.4
End2.4
Third
6397
#17
17.32.0
15.317.3
Auto1.7
Teleop14.5
End1.1
red by 2.2
4015
#27
15.11.4
15.416.8
Auto4.6
Teleop9.4
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
55%Auto oddsMissed55%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
12%Barge oddsMissed14%Barge oddsMissed