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Red102
885021.6
713617.8
755860.9
Blue50
356018.8
957519.9
663220.3
92%Model gave it8%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9951015010250

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+54Teleop
+54Endgame
+52Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
0Leave3
6Coral scored#1
30Coral points6
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +33
11Coral scored#5
38Coral points17
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#0
6Processor points6
12Net points0
18Algae points6
56Total teleop23
Reef
6L4#2
5L3#1
4L2#1
2L1 · trough#2
21Game pieces#7
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +52
0Foul points2
102Total score50

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.91.0
53.754.7
Auto14.8
Teleop35.3
End10.8
red by 40.6
6632
#25
20.30.5
17.316.8
Auto3.0
Teleop14.5
End2.8
Second
8850
#14
21.61.0
19.120.1
Auto4.6
Teleop15.5
End1.4
red by 1.6
9575
#24
19.90.4
18.117.7
Auto4.3
Teleop14.1
End1.5
Third
7136
#26
17.81.3
14.115.4
Auto3.6
Teleop13.0
End1.2
blue by 1.0
3560
#28
18.80.6
18.517.9
Auto3.8
Teleop12.3
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
30%Auto oddsEarned22%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
77%Barge oddsEarned14%Barge oddsEarned