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Red134
111465.4
220063.1
762316.7
Blue35
571922.3
775722.0
164615.9
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12449010015020013435

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+31Auto
+105Teleop
+111Endgame
+99Fouls
AutonomousRed +31
6Leave6
6Coral scored#0
31Coral points0
37Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +74
14Coral scored#2
51Coral points7
3Processor algae#0
3Net algae#0
18Processor points0
12Net points0
30Algae points0
81Total teleop7
Reef
8L4#1
7L3#1
2L2#0
3L1 · trough#0
26Game pieces#2
BargeRed +6
10Cage & park4
10Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +99
6Foul points18
134Total score35

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.42.9
39.942.8
Auto19.2
Teleop44.2
End2.0
red by 43.0
5719
#16
22.33.6
25.922.3
Auto6.3
Teleop14.7
End1.4
Second
63.12.9
44.047.0
Auto15.3
Teleop45.2
End2.6
red by 41.1
7757
#26
22.03.6
16.412.8
Auto4.6
Teleop15.4
End2.0
Third
7623
#17
16.72.9
17.920.8
Auto5.6
Teleop10.2
End0.9
red by 0.8
1646
#18
15.92.1
6.94.8
Auto3.4
Teleop11.4
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
70%Auto oddsEarned40%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
9%Coral oddsEarned4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
47%Barge oddsMissed17%Barge oddsMissed