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Red78
468818.8
713617.9
78147.2
Blue54
263420.7
568925.7
77219.4
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions98100607080901101201307854

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+30Teleop
+24Endgame
+24Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave6
3Coral scored#0
14Coral points0
20Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +16
11Coral scored#8
38Coral points28
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
12Processor points6
8Net points8
20Algae points14
58Total teleop42
Reef
5L4#2
5L3#2
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
18Game pieces#11
BargeBlue +6
0Cage & park6
0Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +24
0Foul points0
78Total score54

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
781
#7
47.20.3
45.144.8
Auto11.0
Teleop35.3
End0.9
red by 21.5
5689
#15
25.72.0
28.826.9
Auto5.5
Teleop18.4
End1.9
Second
4688
#22
18.80.3
16.416.0
Auto4.3
Teleop13.5
End0.9
blue by 1.9
2634
#23
20.72.0
27.525.5
Auto2.4
Teleop16.7
End1.6
Third
7136
#24
17.90.3
18.818.5
Auto4.8
Teleop11.4
End1.7
blue by 1.5
772
#28
19.42.0
24.422.4
Auto4.5
Teleop12.9
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
57%Auto oddsMissed46%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
15%Barge oddsMissed43%Barge oddsMissed