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Red57
468818.8
616212.1
687515.1
Blue75
878919.0
1061118.9
122926.7
38%Model gave it62%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions63760501001505775

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+14
Endgame+14
Fouls+18
AutonomousBlue +7
3Leave3
1Coral scored#3
6Coral points13
9Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +7
7Coral scored#11
26Coral points39
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
6Processor points0
8Net points8
14Algae points8
40Total teleop47
Reef
2L4#5
3L3#4
2L2#3
1L1 · trough#2
11Game pieces#16
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +18
2Foul points6
57Total score75

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4688
#22
18.80.5
16.015.6
Auto4.3
Teleop13.5
End0.9
blue by 7.9
1229
#12
26.70.1
25.625.5
Auto5.1
Teleop19.9
End1.8
Second
6875
#26
15.10.5
14.013.5
Auto3.1
Teleop10.2
End1.8
blue by 3.9
8789
#14
19.00.1
12.412.3
Auto4.2
Teleop13.4
End1.4
Third
6162
#19
12.10.5
17.617.1
Auto4.3
Teleop7.1
End0.7
blue by 6.8
18.90.1
19.919.9
Auto3.7
Teleop12.6
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
25%Auto oddsMissed59%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
12%Barge oddsMissed39%Barge oddsMissed