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Red114
363655.7
404342.3
703430.8
Blue75
683126.2
644332.3
448832.3
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9510140608012014016011475

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+49Teleop
+39Endgame
+39Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave3
3Coral scored#3
13Coral points13
19Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +46
16Coral scored#8
57Coral points29
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#2
12Processor points6
20Net points8
32Algae points14
89Total teleop43
Reef
8L4#4
2L3#2
5L2#3
4L1 · trough#2
26Game pieces#14
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +39
0Foul points0
114Total score75

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.73.3
26.830.1
Auto13.5
Teleop39.7
End2.4
red by 23.4
4488
#10
32.31.5
30.629.1
Auto8.4
Teleop22.3
End1.7
Second
42.33.3
30.734.0
Auto6.3
Teleop33.6
End2.5
red by 10.0
32.31.5
34.232.7
Auto6.1
Teleop19.2
End7.0
Third
30.82.0
26.428.4
Auto4.5
Teleop21.1
End5.2
red by 4.6
6831
#16
26.21.5
23.321.9
Auto5.2
Teleop17.4
End3.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
54%Auto oddsEarned60%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
53%Barge oddsMissed47%Barge oddsEarned