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Red42
273314.9
944616.8
466221.3
Blue22
255721.2
68459.5
84721.7
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7661020401001201401604222

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+14Teleop
+14Endgame
+20Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave3
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
6Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +11
4Coral scored#3
16Coral points9
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
0Processor points0
4Net points0
4Algae points0
20Total teleop9
Reef
2L4#1
2L3#1
1L2#1
0L1 · trough#0
6Game pieces#3
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +20
12Foul points6
42Total score22

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4662
#13
21.33.9
20.016.1
Auto4.7
Teleop12.3
End4.2
blue by 0.4
847
#11
21.72.6
15.212.7
Auto4.7
Teleop14.6
End2.4
Second
9446
#23
16.83.9
23.419.5
Auto2.6
Teleop11.2
End2.9
blue by 4.5
2557
#22
21.24.3
29.725.4
Auto2.5
Teleop16.4
End2.3
Third
2733
#26
14.93.9
21.517.6
Auto2.4
Teleop11.8
End0.7
red by 5.4
6845
#27
9.52.6
9.97.3
Auto2.5
Teleop3.8
End3.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
44%Auto oddsMissed46%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
35%Barge oddsEarned28%Barge oddsMissed