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Qual 112025 PNW District Oregon State Fair Event
Red70
252131.1
28986.1
469219.7
Blue71
960026.1
406126.4
703426.4
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions95730501507071

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+1
Endgame+1
Fouls+1
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave0
0Coral scored#2
0Coral points9
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +2
12Coral scored#12
42Coral points44
2Processor algae#0
1Net algae#3
12Processor points0
4Net points12
16Algae points12
58Total teleop56
Reef
6L4#6
3L3#3
2L2#3
1L1 · trough#2
15Game pieces#17
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +1
0Foul points0
70Total score71

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2521
#10
31.13.3
35.2→31.9
Auto4.6
Teleop23.4
End3.1
red by 4.7
4061
#4
26.41.5
18.8→17.3
Auto5.7
Teleop19.0
End1.8
Second
4692
#32
19.73.3
19.4→16.2
Auto2.5
Teleop15.6
End1.6
blue by 6.7
7034
#27
26.41.5
24.8→23.3
Auto5.7
Teleop16.3
End4.3
Third
2898
#30
6.13.3
22.9→19.6
Auto1.4
Teleop3.0
End1.7
blue by 20.0
9600
#21
26.11.5
18.4→16.8
Auto4.9
Teleop20.9
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
38%Auto oddsMissed44%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
63%Barge oddsMissed27%Barge oddsMissed