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Red51
412512.7
956716.3
74918.5
Blue32
378621.0
68459.9
703426.4
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions695902040801001205132

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
+7Teleop
+13Endgame
+19Fouls
AutonomousBlue +4
9Leave6
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points7
9Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +11
4Coral scored#3
16Coral points11
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
6Processor points0
4Net points4
10Algae points4
26Total teleop15
Reef
1L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
6Game pieces#5
BargeRed +6
10Cage & park4
10Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +19
6Foul points0
51Total score32

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
749
#28
18.50.8
19.819.1
Auto3.9
Teleop14.4
End0.2
blue by 7.9
7034
#27
26.41.4
23.822.3
Auto5.7
Teleop16.3
End4.3
Second
9567
#19
16.30.8
16.916.1
Auto5.0
Teleop8.1
End3.2
blue by 4.7
3786
#22
21.01.4
10.79.3
Auto2.2
Teleop16.9
End1.8
Third
4125
#18
12.70.8
15.414.6
Auto2.3
Teleop9.8
End0.6
red by 2.7
6845
#33
9.91.4
10.38.9
Auto3.0
Teleop4.5
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
27%Auto oddsMissed25%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
53%Barge oddsMissed19%Barge oddsMissed