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Red112
184418.3
469232.0
960036.1
Blue103
1044417.5
237433.6
644336.0
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions103966080120140160112103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+13Teleop
+11Endgame
+9Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave6
3Coral scored#1
16Coral points3
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +6
19Coral scored#15
68Coral points54
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#4
6Processor points6
8Net points16
14Algae points22
82Total teleop76
Reef
6L4#5
9L3#6
4L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
25Game pieces#21
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +9
0Foul points2
112Total score103

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9600
#18
36.10.8
30.531.3
Auto7.3
Teleop22.8
End6.0
red by 0.1
6443
#22
36.00.4
33.033.4
Auto6.7
Teleop22.8
End6.6
Second
4692
#24
32.00.8
31.332.1
Auto6.3
Teleop25.2
End0.6
blue by 1.6
2374
#11
33.60.4
32.632.9
Auto1.6
Teleop29.2
End2.9
Third
1844
#23
18.30.8
18.319.0
Auto5.1
Teleop9.7
End3.4
red by 0.7
17.50.4
10.711.1
Auto5.7
Teleop9.6
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
61%Auto oddsEarned49%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
2%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
30%Barge oddsEarned55%Barge oddsEarned