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Red166
367455.7
960036.1
669652.2
Blue157
644336.0
184418.3
154051.6
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16311150100150200166157

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+1
+9Endgame
+9Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave0
5Coral scored#5
26Coral points23
26Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +4
18Coral scored#24
66Coral points88
4Processor algae#3
6Net algae#3
24Processor points18
24Net points12
48Algae points30
114Total teleop118
Reef
8L4#11
7L3#10
4L2#5
4L1 · trough#3
33Game pieces#35
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +9
0Foul points0
166Total score157

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.70.3
53.553.8
Auto12.2
Teleop37.3
End6.2
red by 4.1
51.62.5
45.347.7
Auto11.8
Teleop33.3
End6.5
Second
6696
#14
52.20.3
50.050.3
Auto9.5
Teleop41.0
End1.7
red by 16.2
6443
#22
36.02.5
34.937.4
Auto6.7
Teleop22.8
End6.6
Third
9600
#18
36.10.3
34.034.3
Auto7.3
Teleop22.8
End6.0
red by 17.8
1844
#23
18.32.5
19.021.5
Auto5.1
Teleop9.7
End3.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned89%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
61%Barge oddsEarned77%Barge oddsEarned