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Red188
546870.6
956724.9
95760.1
Blue156
154051.6
142550.7
99730.4
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions175141100120160200220240188156

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
+24Teleop
+32Endgame
+32Fouls
AutonomousBlue +4
3Leave9
6Coral scored#6
30Coral points28
33Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +28
26Coral scored#19
93Coral points67
3Processor algae#2
5Net algae#6
18Processor points12
20Net points24
38Algae points36
131Total teleop103
Reef
10L4#11
10L3#6
9L2#4
3L1 · trough#4
40Game pieces#33
BargeRed +8
24Cage & park16
24Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +32
0Foul points0
188Total score156

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70.60.3
70.070.3
Auto18.0
Teleop43.6
End9.0
red by 19.0
51.60.2
51.751.8
Auto11.8
Teleop33.3
End6.5
Second
957
#1
60.10.3
59.559.8
Auto17.6
Teleop34.7
End7.8
red by 9.4
50.70.2
50.851.0
Auto16.0
Teleop27.7
End7.0
Third
9567
#13
24.90.3
24.324.6
Auto6.0
Teleop14.1
End4.8
blue by 5.5
997
#28
30.40.2
30.430.6
Auto5.9
Teleop24.6
End-0.2