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Red206
546870.6
956724.9
95760.1
Blue201
247143.9
960036.1
363656.3
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions185158100150200250206201

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+9Teleop
Endgame+1
+5Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
9Leave0
9Coral scored#7
45Coral points33
54Total auto33
TeleoperatedBlue +12
20Coral scored#32
72Coral points116
5Processor algae#3
10Net algae#5
30Processor points18
40Net points20
70Algae points38
142Total teleop154
Reef
7L4#11
8L3#17
8L2#6
6L1 · trough#5
44Game pieces#47
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +5
6Foul points0
206Total score201

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70.60.4
69.670.0
Auto18.0
Teleop43.6
End9.0
red by 14.3
56.30.8
56.056.8
Auto10.7
Teleop43.6
End2.0
Second
957
#1
60.10.4
59.159.5
Auto17.6
Teleop34.7
End7.8
red by 16.1
43.90.8
43.744.4
Auto7.7
Teleop30.9
End5.3
Third
9567
#13
24.90.4
23.924.3
Auto6.0
Teleop14.1
End4.8
blue by 11.2
9600
#18
36.10.8
35.836.6
Auto7.3
Teleop22.8
End6.0