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Red115
644324.6
154046.7
95544.5
Blue171
703451.0
75321.1
142555.0
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions127136406080100160180200115171

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+32
Endgame+44
Fouls+56
AutonomousBlue +14
3Leave0
4Coral scored#7
20Coral points37
23Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +18
13Coral scored#15
46Coral points54
1Processor algae#2
4Net algae#5
6Processor points12
16Net points20
22Algae points32
68Total teleop86
Reef
6L4#9
4L3#6
5L2#5
2L1 · trough#2
22Game pieces#29
BargeBlue +12
24Cage & park36
24Total endgame36
Penalties & totalBlue +56
0Foul points12
115Total score171

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1540
#11
46.70.0
46.846.7
Auto6.9
Teleop34.1
End5.8
blue by 8.3
55.00.8
54.655.4
Auto16.4
Teleop30.1
End8.6
Second
955
#13
44.50.0
44.544.5
Auto15.2
Teleop29.1
End0.2
blue by 6.6
51.00.8
50.651.4
Auto17.4
Teleop27.8
End5.9
Third
24.60.0
24.624.6
Auto8.7
Teleop7.6
End8.3
red by 3.5
753
#10
21.10.8
19.620.4
Auto2.1
Teleop11.4
End7.6