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Red142
602521.0
815971.7
926418.7
Blue58
999710.5
1038316.3
566531.7
89%Model gave it11%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1226705010015020014258

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+20Auto
+70Teleop
+72Endgame
+84Fouls
AutonomousRed +20
9Leave0
6Coral scored#4
31Coral points20
40Total auto20
TeleoperatedRed +50
14Coral scored#8
52Coral points30
2Processor algae#0
5Net algae#1
12Processor points0
20Net points4
32Algae points4
84Total teleop34
Reef
9L4#5
4L3#4
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
27Game pieces#13
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +84
12Foul points0
142Total score58

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
71.71.8
66.668.4
Auto19.3
Teleop50.3
End2.1
red by 40.0
5665
#18
31.70.7
41.240.6
Auto6.1
Teleop24.7
End0.9
Second
6025
#13
21.01.8
19.421.2
Auto4.7
Teleop14.7
End1.6
red by 4.7
16.30.7
19.418.8
Auto4.9
Teleop9.3
End2.0
Third
9264
#10
18.71.8
16.818.6
Auto6.9
Teleop10.1
End1.7
red by 8.1
9997
#14
10.51.1
7.26.1
Auto4.1
Teleop5.2
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned76%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
20%Coral oddsEarned14%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
29%Barge oddsMissed8%Barge oddsMissed