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Red109
1021327.2
753612.9
815971.7
Blue86
643149.1
926418.7
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1267505010015020010986

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+8Auto
+27Teleop
+23Endgame
+23Fouls
AutonomousRed +8
9Leave9
4Coral scored#2
18Coral points10
27Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +19
14Coral scored#14
52Coral points49
3Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
18Processor points6
12Net points8
30Algae points14
82Total teleop63
Reef
9L4#4
3L3#5
4L2#4
2L1 · trough#3
24Game pieces#19
BargeBlue +4
0Cage & park4
0Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +23
0Foul points0
109Total score86

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
71.70.1
70.670.5
Auto19.3
Teleop50.3
End2.1
red by 22.6
49.10.9
51.151.9
Auto8.4
Teleop39.9
End0.7
Second
27.20.1
27.127.0
Auto4.9
Teleop21.3
End1.0
red by 8.6
9264
#10
18.70.9
19.019.9
Auto6.9
Teleop10.1
End1.7
Third
7536
#21
12.90.1
13.213.0
Auto3.3
Teleop9.1
End0.5
red by 6.4
6.50.9
2.83.7
Auto3.5
Teleop2.1
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
80%Auto oddsEarned89%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
34%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
16%Barge oddsMissed7%Barge oddsMissed