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Red124
643149.1
599333.9
Blue108
784043.5
808434.6
566531.7
27%Model gave it73%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions89123050100150200124108

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+12Teleop
+10Endgame
+16Fouls
Autonomouslevel
3Leave0
4Coral scored#5
20Coral points23
23Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +12
14Coral scored#11
51Coral points41
4Processor algae#3
4Net algae#5
24Processor points18
16Net points20
40Algae points38
91Total teleop79
Reef
5L4#5
6L3#3
5L2#4
2L1 · trough#4
26Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +16
6Foul points0
124Total score108

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
49.10.7
48.649.3
Auto8.4
Teleop39.9
End0.7
red by 5.6
43.50.1
43.643.6
Auto10.5
Teleop27.4
End5.6
Second
33.90.7
33.534.2
Auto8.5
Teleop24.0
End1.4
blue by 0.7
34.60.1
34.834.7
Auto9.3
Teleop24.7
End0.5
Third
6.50.7
5.36.0
Auto3.5
Teleop2.1
End0.9
blue by 25.2
5665
#18
31.70.1
31.931.8
Auto6.1
Teleop24.7
End0.9