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Red104
263832.2
574043.1
902218.9
Blue30
900414.4
751525.8
223415.3
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions965805015010430

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+64Teleop
+74Endgame
+74Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
3Leave0
5Coral scored#2
27Coral points9
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +43
12Coral scored#2
44Coral points7
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
6Processor points0
8Net points8
14Algae points8
58Total teleop15
Reef
6L4#1
4L3#2
5L2#0
2L1 · trough#1
20Game pieces#6
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +74
0Foul points0
104Total score30

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.12.8
32.635.4
Auto13.0
Teleop23.0
End7.1
red by 17.3
7515
#36
25.82.6
20.017.3
Auto4.1
Teleop17.7
End4.0
Second
2638
#10
32.22.8
29.832.6
Auto7.6
Teleop18.4
End6.2
red by 16.9
2234
#48
15.31.6
16.715.1
Auto2.7
Teleop10.1
End2.5
Third
9022
#27
18.92.8
16.519.3
Auto3.8
Teleop13.3
End1.8
red by 4.5
9004
#47
14.42.6
17.014.4
Auto4.2
Teleop9.5
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
52%Auto oddsEarned51%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
36%Barge oddsEarned26%Barge oddsMissed