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Red102
414551.3
265617.9
263832.2
Blue63
947519.5
919414.6
941521.7
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9654015010263

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+43Teleop
+39Endgame
+39Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave6
3Coral scored#1
17Coral points3
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +29
15Coral scored#9
53Coral points32
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#1
12Processor points12
12Net points4
24Algae points16
77Total teleop48
Reef
6L4#4
5L3#3
5L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
23Game pieces#13
BargeBlue +4
2Cage & park6
2Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +39
0Foul points0
102Total score63

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4145
#11
51.30.8
28.929.7
Auto11.8
Teleop35.0
End4.5
red by 29.6
9415
#15
21.70.2
15.014.8
Auto4.3
Teleop15.3
End2.1
Second
2638
#10
32.20.8
28.929.8
Auto7.6
Teleop18.4
End6.2
red by 12.7
9475
#13
19.50.2
18.618.3
Auto6.3
Teleop11.9
End1.3
Third
2656
#41
17.90.8
22.323.2
Auto4.2
Teleop12.8
End1.0
red by 3.4
9194
#53
14.60.2
17.517.3
Auto3.9
Teleop9.2
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
55%Auto oddsMissed35%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
43%Barge oddsMissed28%Barge oddsMissed