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Red70
31634.2
255911.9
43320.3
Blue79
680818.1
86244.3
568419.2
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6872204060801001207079

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+5
Endgame+9
Fouls+9
AutonomousBlue +3
9Leave3
1Coral scored#3
4Coral points13
13Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +2
9Coral scored#9
33Coral points31
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#5
6Processor points6
16Net points20
22Algae points26
55Total teleop57
Reef
3L4#4
3L3#4
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
15Game pieces#18
BargeBlue +4
2Cage & park6
2Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +9
0Foul points0
70Total score79

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
316
#18
34.20.5
33.333.9
Auto7.7
Teleop25.9
End0.6
blue by 10.1
862
#3
44.31.1
39.540.6
Auto9.7
Teleop29.6
End5.0
Second
433
#28
20.30.5
15.916.4
Auto3.9
Teleop12.7
End3.7
red by 1.1
5684
#19
19.21.1
14.315.4
Auto4.0
Teleop11.4
End3.8
Third
2559
#30
11.90.5
15.416.0
Auto4.6
Teleop6.2
End1.2
blue by 6.1
18.11.1
13.714.8
Auto3.9
Teleop12.6
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
29%Auto oddsMissed48%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
38%Barge oddsMissed26%Barge oddsMissed