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Red68
164022.1
909437.8
437339.5
Blue89
998414.5
192358.4
680815.2
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions135930501502006889

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
Teleop+23
Endgame+21
Fouls+21
AutonomousBlue +1
6Leave9
4Coral scored#4
20Coral points18
26Total auto27
TeleoperatedBlue +22
6Coral scored#11
22Coral points38
1Processor algae#2
1Net algae#1
6Processor points12
4Net points4
10Algae points16
32Total teleop54
Reef
4L4#6
3L3#4
1L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
12Game pieces#18
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +21
6Foul points6
68Total score89

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4373
#33
39.53.8
44.140.2
Auto9.1
Teleop25.5
End5.0
blue by 19.0
1923
#15
58.40.6
61.761.2
Auto17.2
Teleop39.1
End2.2
Second
9094
#26
37.83.8
43.139.3
Auto11.5
Teleop22.1
End4.2
red by 22.7
6808
#22
15.20.6
21.520.9
Auto3.8
Teleop10.8
End0.6
Third
22.13.8
32.428.6
Auto6.0
Teleop13.3
End2.9
red by 7.5
9984
#24
14.51.0
8.67.6
Auto5.4
Teleop7.4
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsEarned82%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
45%Coral oddsMissed19%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
78%Barge oddsEarned14%Barge oddsMissed