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Red182
31654.3
540136.7
253952.3
Blue133
48443.0
10355.6
437339.5
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions146147100120140160180182133

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+55Teleop
+45Endgame
+49Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
0Leave6
7Coral scored#2
34Coral points10
34Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +37
20Coral scored#16
72Coral points59
5Processor algae#3
6Net algae#3
30Processor points18
24Net points12
54Algae points30
126Total teleop89
Reef
7L4#5
10L3#6
5L2#5
5L1 · trough#2
38Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +49
6Foul points2
182Total score133

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
316
#4
54.31.0
50.251.2
Auto15.9
Teleop34.7
End3.8
blue by 1.2
103
#17
55.60.1
52.052.1
Auto2.3
Teleop47.6
End5.7
Second
2539
#19
52.31.0
48.249.2
Auto12.5
Teleop36.3
End3.6
red by 9.3
484
#6
43.00.1
39.539.5
Auto13.5
Teleop24.5
End5.1
Third
5401
#14
36.71.0
32.633.6
Auto3.4
Teleop29.5
End3.9
blue by 2.8
4373
#33
39.50.1
35.936.0
Auto9.1
Teleop25.5
End5.0