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Red199
192358.4
27238.7
83457.7
Blue216
331472.2
171233.5
260771.2
28%Model gave it72%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions186206150250199216

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+17
Endgame+19
Fouls+17
AutonomousBlue +7
6Leave9
6Coral scored#7
31Coral points35
37Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +10
29Coral scored#24
106Coral points88
2Processor algae#4
7Net algae#11
12Processor points24
28Net points44
40Algae points68
146Total teleop156
Reef
16L4#12
6L3#10
9L2#5
4L1 · trough#4
44Game pieces#46
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Penalties & totalBlue +17
2Foul points0
199Total score216

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1923
#15
58.40.5
58.759.3
Auto17.2
Teleop39.1
End2.2
blue by 13.7
72.20.6
68.569.2
Auto17.5
Teleop44.3
End10.3
Second
834
#11
57.70.5
58.058.5
Auto10.3
Teleop36.4
End11.0
blue by 13.5
71.20.6
67.668.2
Auto17.7
Teleop45.2
End8.4
Third
272
#13
38.70.5
39.039.6
Auto6.2
Teleop23.0
End9.6
red by 5.3
1712
#18
33.50.6
29.830.5
Auto4.9
Teleop23.8
End4.7