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Red143
255434.0
331471.3
518137.8
Blue110
30332.6
1040017.5
139153.5
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions169116100150200250143110

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+37Teleop
+35Endgame
+33Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
3Leave6
5Coral scored#2
27Coral points10
30Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +23
21Coral scored#14
77Coral points50
4Processor algae#2
2Net algae#6
24Processor points12
8Net points24
32Algae points36
109Total teleop86
Reef
7L4#6
8L3#6
7L2#3
4L1 · trough#1
32Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +33
0Foul points2
143Total score110

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
71.30.7
69.068.3
Auto18.7
Teleop42.9
End9.7
red by 17.8
53.50.4
53.152.7
Auto9.0
Teleop38.0
End6.4
Second
37.80.7
38.537.8
Auto6.3
Teleop25.8
End5.8
red by 5.2
303
#12
32.60.4
33.032.6
Auto3.9
Teleop27.4
End1.4
Third
2554
#11
34.00.7
35.434.7
Auto7.5
Teleop25.6
End1.0
red by 16.5
17.50.4
18.618.2
Auto4.1
Teleop11.9
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned91%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
40%Coral oddsMissed18%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
91%Barge oddsMissed55%Barge oddsMissed