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Red186
634351.4
255754.7
903650.7
Blue147
214753.4
445048.3
94845.9
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions156155145150160165170175180185186147

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+27Teleop
+45Endgame
+39Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
0Leave6
3Coral scored#1
15Coral points3
15Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +21
25Coral scored#22
89Coral points78
5Processor algae#2
4Net algae#6
30Processor points12
16Net points24
46Algae points36
135Total teleop114
Reef
12L4#8
6L3#6
6L2#5
4L1 · trough#4
37Game pieces#31
BargeRed +18
24Cage & park6
24Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +39
12Foul points18
186Total score147

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2557
#30
54.71.8
41.042.8
Auto7.5
Teleop41.5
End5.7
red by 1.2
2147
#40
53.41.3
47.346.0
Auto10.2
Teleop38.1
End5.2
Second
6343
#27
51.41.8
51.553.3
Auto11.9
Teleop35.3
End4.2
red by 3.1
4450
#37
48.31.3
46.745.4
Auto8.6
Teleop34.1
End5.5
Third
9036
#14
50.71.8
48.149.9
Auto3.6
Teleop43.9
End3.2
red by 4.7
948
#44
45.91.3
49.448.1
Auto9.1
Teleop31.1
End5.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned85%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
36%Coral oddsMissed36%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
35%Barge oddsEarned82%Barge oddsEarned