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Red235
382629.3
293074.3
451362.2
Blue273
2910115.2
252270.8
95767.2
2%Model gave it98%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions168275100150200250300350400235273

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+37
Teleop+54
Endgame+44
Fouls+38
AutonomousBlue +37
6Leave9
7Coral scored#14
34Coral points68
40Total auto77
TeleoperatedBlue +17
26Coral scored#28
93Coral points100
4Processor algae#7
9Net algae#7
24Processor points42
36Net points28
60Algae points70
153Total teleop170
Reef
17L4#19
6L3#9
7L2#7
3L1 · trough#7
46Game pieces#56
BargeRed +10
36Cage & park26
36Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +38
6Foul points0
235Total score273

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2930
#20
74.33.2
68.671.8
Auto21.0
Teleop43.1
End10.2
blue by 40.9
115.20.0
112.6112.6
Auto26.5
Teleop76.6
End12.2
Second
4513
#22
62.23.2
59.562.7
Auto7.9
Teleop42.3
End12.0
blue by 8.7
70.80.0
68.268.1
Auto21.5
Teleop44.7
End4.6
Third
3826
#45
29.33.2
28.031.2
Auto7.1
Teleop17.8
End4.4
blue by 37.9
957
#17
67.20.0
67.467.4
Auto16.6
Teleop39.6
End10.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned98%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
71%Coral oddsEarned99%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
99%Barge oddsEarned98%Barge oddsEarned